Abstract
Mounting evidence underscores climate change’s persistent impact on agriculture, notably affecting resource-poor smallholder farmers heavily dependent on climate-sensitive resources. This influence extends to livestock production, prompting fundamental changes in the types of livestock maintained or raised within rural farming households. Nonetheless, ambiguity prevails concerning the decision-making processes of these farmers in response to shifting temperature and precipitation patterns. Employing the Multivariate Probit model (MVP), this study investigates how climate factors shape smallholder farmers’ choices regarding livestock species. A multi-stage sampling method identified 495 smallholder livestock farmers, with household-level data gathered via a semi-structured questionnaire. This dataset was augmented by long-term geo-referenced averages of climatic data. The findings demonstrate a positive association between higher temperatures and a propensity for farmers to transition from cattle to goats. Similarly, augmented precipitation correlates with shifts from cattle to goats and chickens. Notably, climate variables influence livestock species choices, even after adjusting for household characteristics. These findings significantly contribute to comprehending farmers’ responses and adaptations to environmental shifts, offering pivotal insights for devising policies and interventions aimed at fortifying agricultural resilience. Recommendations from this study encompass tailoring adaptation strategies for diverse ecosystems in light of climate-induced livestock shifts, promoting diversified livestock portfolios to fortify ecosystem resilience against climate fluctuations, advocating for region-specific policies accommodating diverse climatic conditions, and emphasizing ongoing research to facilitate a nuanced understanding and adaptive policy implementation.
Details
Presentation Type
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session
Theme
Assessing Impacts in Diverse Ecosystems
KEYWORDS
Climate factors, Livestock species, Smallholder farmers, Adaptation strategies, South Africa
