Abstract
The aberrantly hot weather in the tropic over an extended period has increased the intensity and frequency of heatwave events. The potential risks from tropical heat waves due to intensifying future climate change are eminent and alarming, and therefore it is necessary to effectively assess the exposure risks to the general population and the magnitude of impacts under future climate change scenarios. By using the diagnostic output from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, climate change scenarios were developed, and the risk exposure of heatwave was analysed for the mid-century (2050) and end-century (2100) for the Malaysian Peninsula. Heat Index (HI) and heatwave risk exposure were calculated under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios, and potential hotspot areas of high-risk heatwave exposure were identified. Under RCP 4.5, the projected HI was in the range of 22 °C to 29 °C (2050) and 22 °C to 30 °C (2100), with further enhancements of 22 °C to 31 °C (2050) and 24 °C to 36 °C (2100) under RCP8.5. In both climatic scenarios, the region’s HI would change by 1.1°C to 1.9°C in the mid-century and -0.4°C to 5.1°C at the end of the century. In both climate scenarios, heatwave occurrences were projected to occur more commonly during the summer monsoon (July) than during the winter monsoon (January). Our analysis also finds that the region’s coastal and most urbanised areas are hotspots for greater heatwave indexes under climate change scenarios.
Presenters
Justin SentianProfessor, Environmental Science Programme/Faculty of Science and Natural Resources, University of Malaysia Sabah, Sabah, Malaysia
Details
Presentation Type
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session
Theme
Assessing Impacts in Diverse Ecosystems
KEYWORDS
Climate Change, Heatwave, Human Health, Peninsular Malaysia, Risk Exposure, Summer Monsoon
