Scorecard Method to Assess Lock-in Effect in Urban Planning Strategies

Abstract

Decision-makers and urban planners must consider climate change issues in current and future planning documents; moreover, the long-term effects of proposed actions are of utmost importance. Lock-in is a path-dependent process that can hinder future urban transformations due to its initial beneficial features and related advantages. Consequently, analyzing the lock-in effect contribute to preventing long-term, hard-to-change trajectories which decrease the climate vulnerability of a given system. This study assesses the lock-in potential of urban planning documents regarding the largest Hungarian cities by applying the scorecard method with predefined thematic categories. The analysis framework considers both direct and indirect impacts in order to reveal and define those urban development actions that would be potentially harmful in terms of climate adaptation issues. Infrastructural, institutional, and behavioral lock-ins are all involved in this study which can enhance planners’ and decision-makers’ consciousness regarding the long-term effects of urban development goals. The results contribute to a more climate-friendly and conscious urban governance model, which would be crucial in a country like Hungary, facing significant changes in its climatic conditions even nowadays and in the near future.

Presenters

Attila Buzasi
Associate Professor, Department of Environmental Economics and Sustainability, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Hungary