Land and Sea
Featured History of Rainfall and Weather Service in India View Digital Media
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Vanshika Kirar, Sandeep Kumar
The paper considers information related to hydrometeorology which is a major branch of meteorology, which deals with all aspects of water that reaches the earth’s surface in the form of rain or snow. Weather plays an important role in various socio-economic activities like agriculture, irrigation, shipping, aviation, off-shore oil exploration, space flights, flood control, expeditions, public health, etc. Accurate forecasts and timely warnings against severe and hazardous weather are some of the most challenging tasks of any national meteorological service. Also, the paper looks at the step-to-step development in the meteorological service of Rainfall Organisation, Rainfall Statistics, Flood Meteorological Organisation, and Weather Service in India.
Featured Megadrought in La Ligua and Petorca Basins and the Aspiration of Water Safety: Sociohistorical Lessons of Communal Resilience and Resistance View Digital Media
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session María Otero Auristondo
The Mega Drought that Chile has experienced in the last decade has increased the sense of socioenvironmental conflicts, mainly due to the unequal access to water in rural areas of its central valleys. Recent studies have analysed the combined effect of changes in climate and consumption of water in basins affected by drought. Yet, studies regarding current or historical responses from communities exposed to droughts are still not sufficiently explored aspects. The case of the basins of the La Ligua and Petorca rivers offer an important case study because the analysis of their communities’ behavioural adaptations to drought-prone conditions could indicate resilient responses in the face of hydric conflicts. Such behaviours, in the long run, have the potential to reveal Chilean social clues for the adaptation to processes such as Climate Change. This research is based in mix methods, where interviews and geographic information systems are the principal collection and analysis methods. It is expected to facilitate the identification of a particular form of resilience associated to droughts, which could also contribute to redesign public policies regarding national management of risk due to drought, now, centred in and from the Chilean territories.
Featured Advancement of the Climate Change Adaptation, Resilience-Building, and Sustainability Model in Agriculture in Developing Countries View Digital Media
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Stephen Chitengi Sakapaji
Today, Global Climate Change (GCC) and responses to it are altering the ways food is produced, processed, and consumed. A major threat to many people's ability to access food, particularly in developing countries, has been the agriculture sector's recent history of struggles and challenges brought about by a changing climate. Therefore, finding practical and cutting-edge answers to the problems of climate variability and sustainability in agriculture is essential. The United Nations 2030 agenda places a greater emphasis on the creation and effective application of models, policies, technology innovations, and strategies that call for the full participation of all parties, including local and indigenous people and their experiences, traditions, and cultural practices. However, despite providing clear examples of sustainable lifestyles within their ecological environment, the voices, knowledge, and concerns of both indigenous and local people have remained underrepresented in the climate change and sustainability discourse. This paper thus, advances the climate adaptation, resilience-building, and sustainability (CARS) model in agriculture in developing countries. The CARS model is a model meant for policymakers and hinges on the integration of scientific, indigenous, and local knowledge in the climate change adaptation discourse. The model supports the notion that an understanding of how policies may affect local and indigenous people and their resilience to GCC is critical to opening up an environment that supports community-based efforts to adapt to climate change by giving them options and engaging them in finding innovative, sustainable, and effective ways to adapt to a continuously changing and unpredictable climate.
Preliminary Evaluation of Possible Impacts of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in the Nazas River Basin, Mexico: Martonne's Aridity Index and Map Analysis View Digital Media
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Gabriel De Jesús Peña Uribe
Water availability is a limiting factor for the development of natural and human ecosystems. Comarca Lagunera is an arid region in northern Mexico and a young metropolis with great economic growth. However, this development has been at the cost of the deterioration of the natural capital of the Nazas River Basin (BRN). Also, climate change generates great uncertainty regarding its future impacts. Therefore, the aim of this work was to determine the degree of current aridity of the NRB with the De Martonne’s aridity index and to make comparisons of the aridity of two shared socioeconomic pathways of greenhouse gas emissions (ssp1-2.6W/m2 and ssp5-8.5W/m2) in two intervals of time (2021-2040 and 2041-2060). For this, maps from the CONABIO and WorldClim databases were used, and the analyzes were performed with QGis Software and Microsoft Excel. Results show that the changes in the aridity of the NRB, with the ssp1-2.6W/m2 scenario in the two intervals, are not significant with respect to the current aridity. However, with the ssp5-8.5W/m2 scenario, the significant changes are shown in the time period 2041-2060, mainly in the upper basin. Compared with the map of vegetation cover and land uses, the possible alterations occur in areas where there are pine-oak forests, natural pastures and rain fed agriculture. The upper basin is the most sensitive part of the water system, because what happens there will have repercussions downstream. This work is a baseline for more complex studies about NRB health, and methods can be used in other sites of interest.
An Error Correction Model to Project Sea Level Rise View Digital Media
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Qiang Fu, Raymond Fu
Semi-empirical is a standard approach that is widely used by climate scientists to project the sea level rise, for example, work by Rahmstorf (2007, 2009), Grinsted et al. (2009), and Orlic& Pasaric (2013, 2015). The sea level projections from the these past studies tend to vary widely depending on the relationship assumed and the data used. In this paper, we propose a new approach, which is built on a well-known Econometric model, namely the Error Correction Model (Engle and Granger, 1987), to estimate the relationship between the sea level rise and the global warming. The main advantages of our approach are: 1. sound empirical framework as the ECM model is a well established approach in the Economics literature; 2. capable of estimating both the long-term relationship between the sea level and the temperature, and short-term dynamics of such relationship; 3. the framework is flexible enough to accommodate a wide range of assumptions, therefore can be expanded in future research. Using data from 1882 to 2020, our model estimates that for every one degree Celsius increase in global temperature, the sea level will rise by 279 millimeters over the course of 46 years. The magnitude of our estimate is within the range of the past studies.The parameters from our estimates are statistically significant and the model back tests well in the out-of-sample testing. We then construct sea level rise projections corresponding to different IPCC climate paths. At conclusion, we also propose several future research options that can further refine our method.
