Fourteenth International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts & Responses

Abstract

Recent studies on climate change (CC) have indicated that the frequency and intensity of extreme weather would increase significantly in the future. For an active adaptation strategy, it is necessary to assess the impacts of CC on extreme weather. In this paper, two robust daily weather generator (IWG and LARS-WG) is employed to assess CC impacts on extreme precipitations and heatwaves for three stations over a diverse range of climatic conditions in Iran. Some advantages of these models for this study are as follows: [1] IWG and LARS-WG are capable of reproducing extreme precipitations and heatwaves, respectively. [2] They generate long time series of weather data, decrease the uncertainty of climate variability, and are helpful for risk assessment. [3] Changes in various important statistics, predicted by GCMs, may be preserved in the downscaled scenarios. For each station, the models were calibrated, and 3000-year daily weather series were generated. Then, parameters of the models were perturbed based on each of the CanESM2 projections under RCP scenarios. Then 3000-year future weather series were generated for each station anther each scenario. Consequently, CC impacts on extreme precipitations and heatwaves were assessed.