Modelling Carbon Dioxide Concentration Scenarios in the Nairobi Metropolitan Region Before and During COVID-19

Abstract

Carbon (iv) oxide is emitted majorly from energy intensive activities. The sources of interest of carbon (iv) oxide in the study area are mining activities, transport system, and industrial processes. This study is aimed at building models that will help in monitoring the emissions within the study area. Three scenarios were discussed, namely: pessimistic scenario; business-as-usual scenario; and the optimistic scenario. The results show that there was a reduction in carbon dioxide concentration by approximately 50.5 ppm between March 2020 and January 2021 inclusive. This is majorly due to reduced human activities that led to decreased consumption of fossil fuel for energy. From the models, the pessimistic, business-as-usual, and the optimistic scenarios gives CO2 concentration of about 547.8 ppm, 427.1 ppm, and 359.4 ppm respectively on December 31st 2021. The future carbon (iv) oxide concentrations, therefore, will depend on the economic recovery policies that the government will put in place. This research helps paint the picture, to the policy makers, of the relationship between energy sources and carbon dioxide emissions. Also, the models in this research helps in monitoring the emissions within the study area hence, will help in evaluating the effectiveness of the current policies in CO2 emissions. Therefore, Kenya should consider the findings of this research when designing economic recovery path. This research recommends investment in solar power, as a green energy, to boost electricity in the country due to the long sunshine hours received in Kenya.

Presenters

John Okwaro
Student, MSc. Environmental Engineering, Taita Taveta University, Nairobi Municipality, Kenya

Details

Presentation Type

Paper Presentation in a Themed Session

Theme

Human Impacts and Responsibility

KEYWORDS

FORECASTING

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