Thirteenth International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts & Responses

Abstract

Water scarcity disrupts food supply, distorts economic development, jeopardizes public health, decreases political stability, and threatens regional security. The purpose of this research is to examine water scarcity as a climate emergency, rather than a slow drip of incremental leaks. From the water wars of the Middle East to the food insecurity that triggered the Arab Spring, to the role of water scarcity in radicalization in Syria and Iraq, to the volatile conflicts over dwindling water recourses in India and China, to increasing tensions along 120 international borders marked by rivers that are running dry, water security is becoming an urgent issue. “The wars of the twenty-first century will be fought over water,” stated Ismail Serageldin, former World Bank Vice President (2000). The Lightning Talk will assess the relevance and implications of this statement for modern water wars and climate emergencies. This study develops a valuable new dataset on water disputes provides a systematic analysis of conflict and cooperation in the twenty largest transboundary lake systems and river systems in the world. The results identify specific triggers, thresholds, and policy strategies that are effective in mitigating water wars. One of the great paradoxes of water scarcity is that it can provoke conflict or promote cooperation. Scarcity can lead to increasing competition over scarce resources, or scarcity can clarify the need for cooperation and facilitate improvements in sustainability. Our work is motivated by the prospect of reducing the imminent threat water scarcity poses to regional stability, international security, and environmental sustainability.

Presenters

Jenny Rebecca Kehl
Professor, Office of the Provost, Global Studies, and School of Freshwater Sciences, University of Wisconsin, Wisconsin, United States