Measuring Change
CO2 Concentration Increase versus US Bodies of Water Temperature Increase
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Warren Hahn
A study of the water temperature of eight bodies of water recorded for up to 89 years compared to the quantity of CO2 concentrations recorded during the latter 58 years of this period, conclusively shows that carbon dioxide has no proportional effect on the change in water temperature. Water temperature data for the study included Lake Erie 30 foot depth water temperature 1927 through 2015; the five Great Lakes water temperature 1955 through 2014; Charleston Harbor highest and lowest water temperatures per year 1950 through 2011 and the Keswick Power Plant Dam, California 1950 through 1964. Recorded CO2 concentrations in micro-mol per mole (ppm) from 1958 through 2015 were graphed. Also, an exponential curve of the total U. S. BTU energy consumption from wood, coal, natural gas and petroleum from 1775 through 2009 was created. Exponential curves for the above fossil products were compared to recorded 1958 through 2016 CO2 ppm concentration data. From this a comparative exponential curve of the CO2 concentration from 1828 through 2016 was created. When comparing the CO2 concentration and fossil fuel usage exponential curves with the gradual linear water temperature increase curves from 1850 (when coal use in the U.S began in earnest) through 2016 (166 years) it is abundantly clear that the relatively flat linear water temperature increase as graphed for the eight bodies of water has no correlation with the recorded exponential increase of fossil fuel usage and CO2 concentration for the 166 year time period.
Perceptions of a Changing Ocean: Resilience, Flexibility and the Commercial Fishing Industry
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Brianna Haugen
Although there has been an increase in the acknowledgement and research of coupled social-ecological systems, there is still much to be explored to understand the effects of change from various drivers within our communities and ecosystems. These drivers include climate change, management regulations, societal shifts, and market trends. This research identifies the relationships and feedbacks that connect climate change to fisheries management and the fishing industry on the Oregon Coast. In order to inform community members and management of decision impacts, this research situates these relationships within the context of the “graying of the fleet” and, within the broader conversation of resilience and adaptive capacity of a community. Semi-structured interviews with members of the fishing industry were conducted and analyzed. Analysis reveals a shift in social networks, collective knowledges, and the intergenerational transfer of this knowledge. Additionally, results reveal the perception of a shrinking window of opportunity. This window is limited by resource inequality such as access to permits and cost of entry, as well as by external factors such as weather and competing interests. Flexibility to respond to change is dampened by timeliness and responsiveness on all levels. Regardless, fishermen maintain a high level of optimism and perception of ability to adapt. The connections identified through this research allows insight into ways that decisions create barriers or enhance flexibility and resilience to climate change, providing management and communities with the right tools to make the best possible decisions.
Risk, Preparedness, and Partnership: Are Force Majeure Clauses in Offshore Wind Contracts in Taiwan Ready?
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session Tsung-Sheng Liao
Long-term operations and maintenance of offshore wind projects imply that supervening events may stop, damage or destroy those projects. The guaranteed profits and benefits may be suddenly gone. Force majeure clauses function as a precautionary mechanism against those unexpected risk. It excuses the non-performance of a party’s obligation in the contracts when extraordinary circumstances render the performance impossible. However, in contrast to the significance of force majeure, force majeure clauses do not draw contract drafters’ attention very much. The drafters may omit force majeure clauses intentionally or unintentionally, or just insert clause templates of force majeure into the contracts without being tailored, and cause serious disputes between parties later. Hence, this article argues that offshore wind developers and governments should collaborate as partners to carefully draft force majeure clauses in their offshore wind contracts to allocate future unexpected risks. By examining and analyzing the case of Taiwan, this article proposes fundamental elements and model clauses of force majeure in offshore wind contracts for the parties.
