A Quantitative Political Spectrum and Forecasting of Social Evolution

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  • Title: A Quantitative Political Spectrum and Forecasting of Social Evolution
  • Author(s): Stepan Sulakshin
  • Publisher: Common Ground Research Networks
  • Collection: Common Ground Research Networks
  • Series: Interdisciplinary Social Sciences
  • Journal Title: The International Journal of Interdisciplinary Social Sciences: Annual Review
  • Keywords: Political Science-political Process in Russia-political Spectrum, Social Sciences-mathematical Methods-quantitative Approach
  • Volume: 5
  • Issue: 4
  • Year: 2010
  • ISSN: 1833-1882 (Print)
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.18848/1833-1882/CGP/v05i04/51654
  • Citation: Sulakshin, Stepan. 2010. "A Quantitative Political Spectrum and Forecasting of Social Evolution." The International Journal of Interdisciplinary Social Sciences: Annual Review 5 (4): 55-66. doi:10.18848/1833-1882/CGP/v05i04/51654.
  • Extent: 12 pages

Abstract

In the exact sciences the “spectrum” concept is formalized, computable and used in effective mathematical procedures like the Fourier transform. At that the spectrum represents quite definite properties of material nature. In the social sciences the “spectrum” term is also used, however, it is figurative. In particular, the “spectrum” concept in the political sciences means traditionally emphasis on the right, the left and the centrists. In this work a new quantitative approach for political spectrum description is suggested. By analogy with Fourier transform the causation between a momentary spectrum distribution and a subsequent temporal process is ascertained. The suggested methodology has applied for a search of particular fast changing political process in the 1990-2007 in Russia. The approved methodology can be used to analyze variable political processes and to forecast their evolution. In particular, the next full-scale political and socio-economical crisis in Russia is predicted.