Note: You should have received a link to take the pre-course survey. Please complete the survey before proceeding with this week's content.

The purpose of this course is to help you understand the demands of crisis management and leadership in highly complex global settings. It is organized around a number of case studies and videos that highlight concepts and themes that are central to understanding factors that can facilitate or prevent catastrophe and impact the response efforts, including:

• Risk analysis and risk reduction
• Low frequency / high impact risks
• Systemic risk
• Groupthink
• Normalization of deviance
• Use of overwhelming force to smother contagion
• Need for surge capacity in the humanitarian arena
• Public-private coordination in disasters
• Innovation in disaster relief
• Crisis communication skills
• Leadership in a crisis

Why Study Global Catastrophes?

• Increasingly central feature of smaller, more interconnected world (the essence of globalization)
• Good examples of leadership and management under pressure
• Lessons are transferable to smaller crises and everyday life
• Careers can be made or broken in crisis situations

Analyzing a Catastrophe

We will be examining four disaster/crisis case studies throughout the course. When analyzing a catastrophe or crisis, the following questions should be kept in mind to provide basic template for how to approach these complex events:

• What are the basic facts? (What happened?)
• What are the basic issues?
• Who are the key actors, people and organizations?
• What went wrong? What went right?
• What are the lessons?

Key Concept: Systemic Risk

Our interdependent world is increasingly vulnerable to systemic risk. There is a vital need to understand it, plan for it, and mitigate its fallout. A financial crisis that began in the United States in 2008 rippled around the world due to the complex linkages of the global financial system, for example. Understanding systemic risk allows you to see the bigger picture and consider how the social, financial, and geopolitical relationships in our world are intertwined, where the vulnerabilities are, and what the consequences could be if one part of a system breaks down.

Systems Innovation. (2019, August 24). Systemic risk [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtA97hyVG20

In its most recent Global Risk Report, the World Economic Forum ranked the top ten global threats by likelihood:

Author's representation of World Economic Forum (2019) Top Ten Risks by Likelihood.

Make a Comment

Make a comment below this update stating why you took this course and what you hope to learn from it.

Post an Update

Post an update stating which of the top ten risks identified by the World Economic Forum you feel is the biggest global risk, and why. Try to ground it in a specific example and address how it relates to the concept of systemic risk. Try to incorporate media, such as a video or image, to present your thinking in more than just text. Also address if there was anything on the list that surprised you, or anything that you thought would be but wasn't. Be sure to comment on the updates of at least three of your peers.

Introduction

The earliest cases of SARS originated in November 2002 in Guangdong Province, China. At the time, it was not known that there was a serious new disease that could be easily spread through coughs and sneezes. The international public health community received reports and chatter over the next month or so of some kind of outbreak, eventually prompting the World Health Organization (WHO) to issue a query to China about what was going on ("Overview," 2004). The initial response of the Chinese government was that it was an outbreak of atypical pneumonia ("Overview," 2004).

Then in February 2003, a doctor who had treated victims of the disease in Guangdong traveled to Hong Kong, where he stayed in a hotel and unknowingly spread the sickness to other guests, who in turn spread the virus to Toronto, Hong King, Vietnam, and Singapore (World Health Organization, 2003a). By March 2003 the disease was identified by the Centers for Disease Control (2013) as a new coronavirus named Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). The SARS epidemic spread rapidly and within a matter of a few months cases were reported in 30 countries and six continents (World Health Organization, 2003a).

The disease was transmitted through coughs, sneezes, and other close contact. Symptoms were a sudden high fever, chills, muscle aches, headache, and a cough. SARS progressed rapidly from fever to serious pneumonia after an average four-to-six-day incubation period. The disease killed people of all ages and health conditions, though it affected the elderly the worst. Death typically occurred several weeks to months after initial symptoms.

SARS' rapid spread highlighted the double-edged impact of globalization on today's public health sphere. On one hand, infectious diseases spread more rapidly than ever through transportation hubs as world transit speeds increase. On the other hand information was freely shared and efforts coordinated across borders, public sector and private sector in a concerted effort to contain the disease.

The role of the WHO in coordinating a global response network to contain the outbreak set unprecedented levels of global coordination in the public health sphere and helped catapult the WHO’s credibility to contain and manage future global pandemics. Three initiatives by the WHO particularly stood out: criticizing a country (China’s) government, issuing stern travel warnings and setting up a global information sharing network. Because of the WHO and each individual country’s efforts, by July 2003, SARS had ceased spreading (World Health Organization, 2003b).

In addition to health impact, SARS had major economic and political impacts. The worldwide economic impact was estimated to be between $30 and $100 billion dollars, affecting travel and tourism the most (Smith, 2006). Second, political: top officials in Hong Kong were forced to resign for their alleged slow response to the crisis. Hong Kong's secretary for health, welfare, and food, Dr. Yeoh Eng-kiong, and the chairman of the Hospital Authority, Dr. Leong Che-hung resigned in the wake of a report criticizing their response to SARS (Parry, 2004).

It was with SARS that the WHO truly announced its arrival on the world stage.

Key Concepts

• Systemic risk in public health – both in spread of disease and in containment and response (supply chain integrity)
• Impact of globalization and modernization on the spread of disease
• Strong infrastructure (including number of doctors) critical to maintaining public health (local, national, global level)
• In scientific community, the need to be first vs. the need to be right
• Good example of a successful surge-style response and collaboration effort with clear leadership and directives
• Ready availability of medicines and vaccinations critical to protecting global health and containing major outbreaks (adequate stockpiles and delivery methods)
• Importance of international health regulations – ties into larger issue of global governance
• The importance of understanding how local customs could affect response and containment efforts

Case Curation

SARS Response Timeline 

CDC SARS Response Timeline, April 26, 2013

Contemporaneous news update, April 25, 2003:

Washington Week. (2014, October 21). From the vault: The SARS epidemic [Video]. YouTube. Original air date: April 25, 2003. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kq4OD7y6lII&feature=youtu.be

Lessons Learned

iBiology Techniques. (2013, November 1). Lesson learned from SARS outbreak - Lucy Shapiro (Stanford) [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WrFKM6yJ7WM&feature=youtu.be

Tan Tock Seng Hospital. (2013, March 25). SARS - A crisis that bonded a nation [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-QiTrPcw4g

AFP News Agency. (2013, March 29). Ten years on, the SARS outbreak that changed HK [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBagOaneLeo

One of the major positive outcomes of the SARS epidemic was the creation of the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN). GOARN is a collaboration of exisiting institutions and networks that can quickly band together to pool resources and share information when there is a suspected disease outbreak. This capacity can be surged quickly, making identification and response time much faster than if scientific groups were working independently.

World Health Organization. (2019, October 10). WHO: Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFYueB_Dy9I

Readings

How SARS Was Contained

SARS 'Stopped Dead In Its Tracks 

Ten Years After SARS: Five Myths to Unravel

SARS: How a Global Epidemic Was Stopped

The SARS Epidemic and Its Aftermath in China: A Political Perspective

Make a Comment

Make a comment below this update on the following question: If you were the mayor of a major city and received a call from the CDC informing you of a significant risk of a major outbreak of an infectious disease, what would be the top three or four items on your agenda to ensure the safety of your city? Keep in mind the lessons of SARS.

Post an Update

Make an update introducing a policy, organization, or technology that is helping to prevent the next big outbreak. Provide an example of how it has been effective with consideration of the global aspect. Try to include at least one media element in your update. Comment on the updates of at least three of your peers.

Instructions

Create a case study on a topic related to the course. You could write about a disaster or crisis, the response effort by a specific organization or government to a specific disaster or crisis, or an innovative technology that is being used in the humanitarian sector. These are just a few ideas: choose something that resonates with you or that you would like to learn more about. Your case study should be at least 2,000 words and you must include at least five media elements.

Your projects should include:

• An Introduction that includes why you chose the topic
• Functional Analysis section that includes an explanation of what happened and the basic issues; identifies the major players and what they did; explains what went wrong and what went right; and summarizes some of the lessons learned.
• A Critical Analysis section providing your views on the most important information that should be captured to make future improvements. This section should also include an exporation of differing views or concerns raised by others.
• At least five scholarly sources
• A Reference section that follows APA style

Your case studies will be submitted for peer review during the fourth week of the course. Peer reviews will take place during the fifth week. You will be expected to review the projects of two of your peers and provide constructive feedback to help them improve the quality of their project. When your peer-reviewed work is returned, you will have one week to revise it based on the recommendations of your peers. You will also review your peer reviewers, providing them with feedback on their review of your work. Finally, you will conduct a self-review using the case study rubric and submit that along with your final revised version. The rubric below should be used to evaluate the projects.

Peer reviews and self-review guidelines

• Complete two anonymous peer reviews of the case study project with a minimum of 15 comments/annotations and a minimum of 200 words in the overall review
• Submit feedback on feedback reviewing the reviewer, minimum of 200 words
• Submit a self-review of their revised case study project (using the case study rubric) including an explanation of the peer feedback they took on, minimum 200 words for the review
• Submit a revised final version of the case study project, minimum 10% revision of the work, which will be tracked by the learner analytics

Case Study Rubric

Introduction

In January 1986, the Space Shuttle Challenger exploded mid-flight shortly after liftoff from its launchpad at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The launch was attended by dozens of people and it was broadcast live on network television. The tragedy shocked the nation, especially the many schoolchildren who had been watching the broadcast excited to see schoolteacher Christa McAuliffe blast into space. McAuliffe had been selected for NASA's inaugural Teacher in Space program. The entire crew of seven astronauts perished in the accident.

There was an extensive inquiry into the accident. The cause was eventually determined to be a faulty O-ring that allowed pressurized gas to escape from one of the rocket boosters. The failure of the O-ring was attributed to the exceptionally cold weather on the day of the launch. 

The decision to proceed with launch by management at Morton Thiokol and NASA against the recommendation of the Morton Thiokol engineers has become an iconic example of the dangers of groupthink. The tensions surrounding the decision-making process also highlight the challenges inherent in a high technology industry where the objectives of management and the responsibilities of expert technical staff may not always align.

Key Concepts

• Tension between management and technicians/scientists
• Risk analysis of and planning for HIGH IMPACT / LOW PROBABILITY scenarios
• Normalization of deviance
• The phenomenon of groupthink
• Organizational culture
• Institutional learning and memory – particularly important in high tech industries

One of the major lessons to take away from the Challenger disaster is the danger of groupthink, especially when there is the potential for a catastrophic failure that could result in loss of life. Learn more about groupthink in the video below. Have you ever experienced groupthink?

McKinsey & Company. (2016, August 5). Adam Grant: Avoid groupthink (in a real way) [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2p-uY_i-wvc

Case Curation

Vintage Space. (2018, January 26). How the Challenger disaster changed NASA [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=24&v=KlpOYLJAGqA&feature=emb_logo

Retro Report. (2019, October 29). Lessons from the Challenger tragedy | Retro Report on PBS [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ds6ie8IV-LI&feature=youtu.be

Tate, K. (2016, January 28). What destroyed space shuttle Challenger [Infographic]. https://www.space.com/31732-space-shuttle-challenger-disaster-explained-infographic.html

Lesson Learned?

On February 1, 2003, STS-107 (utilizing the Columbia orbiter) ended in disaster as the orbiter disintegrated during re-entry into the Earth's atmosphere. All seven crew members were killed and debris fell across Texas and Louisiana.

Mission STS-107 was the 113th space Shuttle launch. The technical cause of the loss of Columbia was a result of damage sustained during launch when a small briefcase-sized piece of foam insulation from the external tank broke off and struck the Columbia's left wing. The impact caused a hole that allowed the extreme temperature experienced by the orbiter during re-entry to burn-up the left wing and cause structural failure of the entire craft.

Dr. Sally Ride, who served on the Rogers Commission and the Columbia Accident Investigation Board, observed that there were “echoes” of the Challenger accident in the Columbia failure (Columbia Accident Investigation Board, 2003, p. 195). The Columbia Accident Investigation Board (2003) concluded that "Risk, uncertainty, and history came together when unprecedented circumstances arose prior to both accidents" (p. 199) and that both accidents were "failures of foresight" (p.196) in which history, normalization of deviance, and organizational culture played a role.

Reading

Lessons in Organizational Ethics from the Columbia Disaster: Can a Culture be Lethal?

Make a Comment

Make a comment below this update that addresses how you would think about reconciling differing objectives of various constituencies as a manager. What would be your decision-making process? Would you think about it differently in a high-impact/low-probability scenario than you would in a scenario where the chances of impact are lower but higher probability?

Post an Update

Explore one of the major concepts highlighted by this case. Explain how the concept was at work in a situation you have experienced or find an example of a disaster or crisis incident and analyze the scenario with the concept in mind. Be sure to include personal reflection in your update about how you would address the concept in a crisis scenario. Try to include at least one media element in your update. Comment on the updates of at least three of your peers.

Introduction

On April 20, 2010, during the final phases of drilling the exploratory well at Macondo in the Gulf of Mexico, a gusher of hydrocarbons escaped from the well and rocketed up the riser along with mud and cement from the well. By the time the rig workers realized a blowout had occurred, it was too late. An attempt was made to activate the blowout preventer, but it failed. That much gas flowing into the mud and gas separator system quickly overwhelmed it and at approximately 9:49 p.m., the first explosion occurred, claiming the first of the eleven victims of the Deepwater Horizon catastrophe (National Commission, 2011).  After burning for approximately 36 hours, Deepwater Horizon sank on April 22, 2010. The resulting oil spill continued for nearly three months, when it was temporarily closed by a cap on July 15. Relief wells were eventually used to permanently seal the well. The well was declared "effectively dead" on September 19, 2010 (CNN, 2010).

As the event evolved, the efforts of both BP's management and the federal government were challenged by media and local leaders. BP was legally responsible, but as events unfolded, the media emphasized that BP did not have the skills to manage the leaks, the environmental risk, or the public relations. President Obama and the federal government emphasized BP's responsibility for the spill, and in the eyes of many observers waited too long before taking over the massive cleanup.

The live feed of oil gushing into the Gulf of Mexico was on the news constantly for weeks while BP attempted to cap the well. It's a familiar and iconic image of the incident that you may remember seeing.

Blue Ocean Productions. (2010, May 13). Underwater video of the BP gulf oil spill [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZKAQDieI5Y&feature=emb_logo

The BP case highlights a number of important dimensions of crisis management in today's world. The BP spill illustrates the trade-offs we constantly face in trying to secure a necessary resource while preserving individual, public and environmental safety. Reconciling these two needs is much easier said than done in a world of multiple political pressures. This case also illustrates the increasingly complex challenges involved in sharing the management of highly sophisticated technology between companies--often multinational consortiums--and governments. What is perhaps most poignant is the tension between the responsibility of companies in a capitalist market system to maximize shareholder value, and the responsibility of the government to protect the public interest and safeguard the environment. It is impossible to achieve the perfect balance, public and political memories are short, and as we have seen in the Gulf, it often takes an unprecedented disaster for the shortcomings of private management and public oversight to become apparent.

Key Concepts

• Organizational culture
• Tension between the public sector and big business in a major crisis
• Issues involved when private interests have the potential to significantly damage the public good
• Intersection of private industry and government regulation/oversight
• Challenge of regulation and management of advanced technology and industry

Case Curation

An animation of the blowout:

USCSB. (2014, June 5). Deepwater Horizon blowout animation [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=12&v=FCVCOWejlag&feature=emb_logo

TIME. (2018, June 18). The oil spill by the numbers [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tq91E9WRRY

Contemporaneous news update:

ABC News. (2010, June 6). Interview with Adm. Thad Allen [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKHv_4SLmC4&feature=emb_err_watch_on_yt

Investigation and Conclusions

Quoting the investigation report of the Challenger disaster, the members of the National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling (2011) remarked that "Complex systems almost always fail in complex ways" (p. viii). Offshore oil drilling employed technology that was among the most complex for any engineering system. The Macondo well had safety regulations from a variety of sources, standards for materials and procedures, and complex protective systems including blowout preventers and multiple layers of instrumentation to detect problems. However, in spite of protective devices and rules, failure still occurred. Observers asked how much was the risk increased by management decisions at all points in the process; could regulators have done more to reduce the risk; and given the blowout, how adequate was the response of the company and the various government entities involved in the cleanup?

Since the 2010 Gulf spill, there have been many reports analyzing the events and decisions that led to the Deepwater Horizon blowout, which parties are to blame, and what lessons and policy changes should be adopted in its wake. Among these reports, there are three that encapsulate the majority of core observations and recommendations.

1. Deep Water: The Gulf Oil Disaster and the Future of Offshore Drilling (2011)

The report by the National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling (2001) cited "failure of management" (p. vii) by BP as a key contributing factor in the Deepwater Horizon incident. The report noted BP’s poor safety track record. It also pointed out that there were additional pressures on the project, since the well was six weeks behind schedule and $58M over budget.

The report Foreward summarized the conclusions the Commission reached following its investigation (pp. vii-viii):

• The explosive loss of the Macondo well could have been prevented.
• The immediate causes of the Macondo well blowout can be traced to a series of identifiable mistakes made by BP, Halliburton, and Transocean that reveal such systematic failures in risk management that they place in doubt the safety culture of the entire industry.
• Deepwater energy exploration and production, particularly at the frontiers of experience, involve risks for which neither industry nor government has been adequately prepared, but for which they can and must be prepared in the future.
• To assure human safety and environmental protection, regulatory oversight of leasing, energy exploration, and production require reforms even beyond those significant reforms already initiated since the Deepwater Horizon disaster. Fundamental reform will be needed in both the structure of those in charge of regulatory oversight and their internal decisionmaking process to ensure their political autonomy, technical expertise, and their full consideration of environmental protection concerns.
• Because regulatory oversight alone will not be sufficient to ensure adequate safety, the oil and gas industry will need to take its own, unilateral steps to dramatically increase safety throughout the industry, including self-policing mechanisms that supplement governmental enforcement.
• The technology, laws and regulations, and practices for containing, responding to, and cleaning up spills lag behind the real risks associated with deepwater drilling into large, high-pressure reservoirs of oil and gas located far offshore and thousands of feet below the ocean’s surface. Government must close the existing gap and industry must support rather than resist that effort.
• Scientific understanding of environmental conditions in sensitive environments in deep Gulf waters, along the region’s coastal habitats, and in areas proposed for more drilling, such as the Arctic, is inadequate. The same is true of the human and natural impacts of oil spills.

Failures of Government Regulation

The National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling report also noted the failure of the Minerals Management Services (MMS) in regulating offshore drilling, describing it as a "serious, and ultimately inexcusable shortfall in supervision of offshore drilling" (p.xiii).

The MMS personnel responsible for reviewing the permit applications submitted to MMS for the Macondo well were neither required nor prepared to evaluate the aspects of that drilling operation that were in fact critical to ensuring well safety. The regulations did not mandate that MMS regulators inquire into the specifics of rupture disks, long string well designs, the cementing process, the use of centralizers, lockdown sleeves, or the temporary abandonment procedures. And, no doubt for that same reason, the MMS personnel responsible for deciding whether the necessary drilling permits were granted lacked the expertise that would have been necessary in any event to determine the relative safety of the well based on any of these factors.

2. Report regarding the causes of the April 20, 2010 Macondo Well blowout (2011)

The joint report of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, and the Coast Guard was issued September 14, 2011. The report placed much more blame on BP than had earlier findings, citing knowledge that BP knew and did not share, which should have led them to change their drilling approach. 

The report cited a number of root causes:

• Poor communication between BP, Transocean, and Halliburton
• Insensitivity to risk by all parties
• Arrogance towards safety
• Insufficient measurement
• Cost containment

3. Deepwater Horizon accident investigation report (2010)

In its own investigative report, BP (2010) stated that "a complex and interlinked series of mechanical failures, human judgments, engineering design, operational implementation and team interfaces came together to allow the initiation and escalation of the accident" (p. 11). The main findings of the report are summarized below.

• The cement and shoe track barriers – and in particular the cement slurry that was used – at the bottom of the Macondo well failed to contain hydrocarbons within the reservoir, as they were designed to do, and allowed gas and liquids to flow up the production casing;
• The results of the negative pressure test were incorrectly accepted by BP and Transocean, although well integrity had not been established;
• Over a 40-minute period, the Transocean rig crew failed to recognize and act on the influx of hydrocarbons into the well until the hydrocarbons were in the riser and rapidly flowing to the surface;
• After the well-flow reached the rig it was routed to a mud-gas separator, causing gas to be vented directly on to the rig rather than being diverted overboard;
• The flow of gas into the engine rooms through the ventilation system created a potential for ignition which the rig’s fire and gas system did not prevent;
• Even after explosion and fire had disabled its crew-operated controls, the rig’s blow-out preventer on the sea-bed should have activated automatically to seal the well. But it failed to operate, probably because critical components were not working.

Make a Comment

Make a comment below this update discussing your view of the government's responsibility to manage a public good. Did the Deepwater Horizon spill case make you think differently about the intersection of government, industry, and the public good?

Post an Update

Identify an incident that has occurred (or could occur) that is similar to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill. Focus on areas where an accident by a private company has had or could have a major impact on a public good. Examine risk, responsibility, impact, and highlight areas where lax oversight or a poor culture of safety are a factor. Choose a specific example rather than writing generally about an industry or company. Try to include at least one media element in your update. Comment on the updates of at least three of your peers.

Some areas to explore for examples:

Nuclear power

Oil pipelines

Drilling in ANWAR or other areas of environmental concern

The financial industry (think about the causes and effects of the 2008 crisis)

Introduction

Our world is facing an unprecedented crisis of global migration which has created a tremendous strain on the global humanitarian system as well as the governments and citizens of the many host countries absorbing refugee populations. According to the latest figures from the United Nations (2018), there are nearly 71 million people displaced worldwide due to conflict, persecution, violence, and human rights violations. This represents an increase of 2.3 million from the prior year. More than half that number are internally displaced people who remain in their home country under dire circumstances, often unable to receive aid or assistance due to dangerous circumstances for aid workers or being outright blocked by the faction in power. 16% of global refugees live in developed countries, but approximately one-third of the global refugee population live in the Least Developed Countries. 

How to accommodate refugees has become a prominent issue both internationally and domestically. Host country leaders face pressures from their citizens about the impact of absorbing refugee populations. Beyond the politics and public sentiment, there are a multitude of challenges involved in helping refugees integrate into cultures which may be very different from their own. Refugees need access to essentials -- meals, shelter, health care -- but they also need a pathway to establish a living for themselves and their families.

There is also a crisis within a crisis unfolding as children are missing out on education for the months and sometimes years it takes to be resettled from the time they initially left their home country. Save the Children (Graham et al., 2019) reports that nearly one-fifth of the world's child population live in a conflict zone. About half of the world's refugee population are children. Save the Children reports that 3.7 refugee children are out of school entirely, 50% of refugee children in low income host countries have access to primary education, and only 22% of refugee teens attend secondary school. Both the primary and the secondary school access figures are well below the comparative global levels.

The underlying issues causing the migration are perhaps the most difficult aspect of the crisis. The civil wars and violent regimes prompting the movement of so many people show so signs of ceasing. In addition, the World Bank (Rigaud et al., 2018) predicts that by 2050, 143 million people from Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America could be forced to move due to slow-onset climate change effects on water, sea levels, and ability to produce crops. The global migration crisis represents the complexity of a truly global catastrophe and calls for leaders capable of facilitating the intense cooperation and coordination among nations and non-governmental agencies that will be needed to begin to mitigate this crisis.

Key Concepts 

• Ethics of a refugee crisis
• Readiness of the global humanitarian system to deal with crisis on this scale
• Policy adjustments within the humanitarian system on type of aid - from goods and services to cash, which provides immediate help and boosts local economies
• Integration of refugees into the culture and society of new home countries
• Education for displaced children
• How to share international responsibilities for hosting refugees
• Permanent resettlement for the most vulnerable refugees (those who are highly unlikely to return to their home countries due to circumstances there)
• Danger to aid workers operating in conflict areas
• Impact of climate change on migration patterns

Case curation

Key definitions:

Internally displaced person: An internally displaced person is forced to move typically for the same reasons as refugees, but do not leave their home country. They are an especially vulnerable population because they are not guaranteed the same protected status as refugees and because they remain in the troubled environment.

UNHCR Teaching About Refugees. (2017, October 23). Who is an internally displaced person? [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCzpVQkencw

Refugee: Refugees are persons fleeing their home country due to armed conflict or persecution. They are protected under international law and are eligible to receive assistance from states, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), and other organizations. Refugees may not be forcibly returned to their home countries if doing so will put them at risk.

UNHCR Teaching About Refugees. (2017, October 23). Who is a refugee? [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvzZGplGbL8

Asylum-seeker: People who have requested protection from another country but whose claim has not yet been processed. Asylum-seekers typically remain in their host country while awaiting the decision and are usually provided with essentials - meals, a place to sleep, and health care. If their request for asylum is denied, they must return to their home country, though sometimes asylum-seekers appeal the decision. If the request for asylum is accepted, then the asylum-seeker is granted refugee or another protected status.

UNHCR Teaching About Refugees. (2017, October 23). Who is an asylum-seeker? [Video]. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1E_tiagn8Q

There is a fourth category: Persons who leave their home country due to natural disasters, climate change, or environmental factors. People migrating due to these circumstances are not considered refugees and do not have legally protected status, nor are they eligible for aid and assistance programs.

Key figures:

UNHCR. (2019, June 19). Figures at a glance [Infographic]. https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/figures-at-a-glance.html

Major sources of refugees:

UNHCR. Major source countries of refugees, end-2017 to end-2018. https://www.unhcr.org/globaltrends2018/

Major host countries of refugees:

UNHCR. Major host countries of refugees, end-2017 to end-2018. https://www.unhcr.org/globaltrends2018/

The UN Humanitarian Refugee Agency is the lead international organization for refugee affairs.The video below provides an overview of their latest report on global trends in forced displacement. This can help give an idea of the magnitude of the crisis.

UNHCR. (2019, June 18.) UNHCR’s global trends in forced displacement – 2018 figures [Video] YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ax5f9KsGfv8&feature=youtu.be

This TED Talk is by David Miliband, chief executive of the International Rescue Committee and former British politician. He is an expert on refugee affairs.

TED. (2017, June 20). The refugee crisis is a test of our character | David Miliband [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgCmT0qkfQM

Readings

The Refugees the World Barely Pays Attention To

The World's 5 Biggest Refugee Crisis

Germany Rolls Up Refugee Welcome Mat to Face Off Right-Wing Threat

Migrants Are on the Rise Around the World, And Myths About Them Are Shaping Attitudes

Turkey Can't Host Syrian Refugees Forever

Make a Comment

Make a comment below this update discussing something from the material that stood out to you. What do you see as the most important, or one of the most important, issues pressing on this crisis? What should leaders be thinking about in terms of resolving this issue?

Post an Update

Post an update about an organization (business entity, non-profit, or non-governmental organization) or a government program that is focused on the refugee/migrant crisis. Who are the major players and what do they do? What is working or not working? Provide a specific example of a project or initiative. Try to include at least one media element in your update. Comment on the updates of at least three of your peers.

Some ideas:

The International Rescue Committee

Save the Children

Oxfam

Amnesty International

CARE

U.S. Office of Refugee Resettlement

USAID

European Commission Department of Migration and Home Affairs

UNHCR

UNOCHA

UNICEF

Introduction

As in most other sectors and institutions, technology is making an impact in the humanitarian sector as well. Over the past ten years, a new trend has emerged, "Digital Humanitarianism," which embraces the use of technology in disaster response, mitigation, and planning. One of the unique features of Digital Humanitarianism is that it has significantly lowered the barrier of entry for humanitarian work. It is now possible to sit at your computer in the United States and participate in response efforts for an earthquake in Japan. With the rapid advances being made in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and neural networks, we have only just begun to explore the possibilities of how technology can be used to significantly reduce the impacts of a major disaster.

Key Concepts

• The role and potential for social media in disasters
• The promises and challenges of technology in humanitarian work
• Data privacy
• International regulations
• Ethical standards in technology and data

Case Curation

Put simply, digital humanitarianism is the bridge between the humanitarian and technology communities. Digital humanitarians use technology to capture, process, and classify big crisis data. The data comes from social media, aerial imagery, and traditional news sources. By filtering and classifying the data, they are able to generate nearly real-time “crisis maps” which show areas of greatest need, areas where roads or other access is blocked, where buildings are collapsed, etc. These maps are used by the United Nations, non-governmental organizations, and government agencies to help them determine how to best allocate their resources in a response. Digital Humanitarians are focused on giving humanitarian responders good data in a timeframe in which the data is useful.

At its core, it is the combining of artificial and human intelligence to maximize asset allocation in order to execute an efficient and rapid response and recovery effort. The data and technology used by the digital humanitarian community is also being applied to longer-term resilience planning, such as the landslide-mapping effort in New Zealand where a University of Michigan-led team of geologists and engineers are creating an inventory of recent landslides, using data collected by drones, satellites, helicopters, and on foot, in order to determine where future landslides are likely to cause the most damage.

University of Michigan. (2016, December 13). University of Michigan researchers use drones to map landslides from New Zealand earthquake [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=NCXdtlSPRuw&feature=emb_logo

Digital Humanitarianism as an identifiable sector began with the Haiti earthquake in 2010. This was the first time a collection of volunteers came together, in a very fluid and organic manner – typical of how this sector operates – because one person, Patrick Meier, a PhD student at Tufts Fletcher School, wanted to know if his wife, who was doing research in Port-au-Prince, was ok.

Using the digital mapping site, Ushahidi.com, he began aggregating and parsing tweets and adding relevant information to a digital map. He quickly realized there was too much for him to handle on his own however, and so called a few friends to help. They set up chat rooms on Skype and worked together, collecting and processing tweets, Facebook updates, and inputting relevant information from news sources. One day in, they had tens of thousands of tweets – still far too many for a few people to deal with. So Patrick called more friends and classmates to help. Those people, in turn, leveraged their own international networks. Since all the work was accessible online, anyone could pitch in after connecting with the Boston-based group on Skype for a crash course. (They had trained over 100 volunteers by the 4th day after the quake struck.)

Over the next couple of years, digital volunteers worked on several major catastrophes. With each one, they became more organized and refined their processes, systems, and technologies, developing new platforms and enhancing existing ones in direct response to assessments over what worked, what didn’t, and where the holes (needs) were that couldn’t be addressed.

Digital humanitarians provide:

• Real-time media monitoring of mainstream and social media
• Rapid geo-location of event-data and infrastructure data
• Creation of live crisis maps for decision support
• Data development and data cleaning
• GIS and Big Data analysis
• Satellite imagery tagging and tracing
• Time-sensitive web-based research

Unlike traditional non-governmental organizations, these groups are free from bureaucracy; nimble and able to scale rapidly; they can quickly leverage world-wide networks; and they have the ability to work around the clock, anytime, anywhere (as long as an internet connection is available).

Today, technology is being used in a variety of ways to enhance and improve disaster response, resiliency initiatives, and humanitarian work. Below are some examples.

Aerial Imagery

Aerial imagery encompasses the imagery gathered from satellites and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs, often referred to as drones.)

Aerial imagery itself is not a new technology. Satellites have been providing information about the earth’s surface and environmental conditions and hazards since the launch of the first NOAA satellite, TIROS, in 1960. Since 1972, the USGS-NASA joint Landsat program has provided data for global change research, agriculture, forestry, geology, resource management, and water and coastal studies. More recently, Landsat imagery has been used to track oil spills and waste pollution generated by mining operations. It was also a key source of information for disaster management teams who were analyzing the damage and impact (immediately and then months later) of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami.

Today, there are over 1,000 satellites in operation, deployed by public and private entities for a variety of purposes including communications, intelligence, navigation, meteorological observation, and optical imaging (Union of Concerned Scientists, 2016). What is new is crowd computing and use of artificial intelligence as means to parse large amounts of imagery, as well as the effort to promote information sharing and accessibility. 

The video below provides additional detail about how collecting and parsing aerial imagery is used after a disaster.

InsuranceCrime. (2018, November 5). Geospatial Intelligence Center imagery is transforming catastrophe response [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=145&v=v3QszGHiB4U&feature=emb_logo

In addition to be used to collect imagery for damage assessment after a disaster, drones are being used to collect data for environmental conservation and mapping initiatives. They are also delivering medical cargo in isolated areas, as described in the video below.

CNET. (2018, April 4). New Zipline drones can deliver medicine faster [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnKnMgWy_tM

Open source mapping

Open sourced mapping is a big part of the digital humanitarian sector. Because these maps are open to all for viewing and editing, they make an effective tool for disaster response and mitigation. For example, as volunteers and AI parse social media and aerial imagery for damage, this data is fed into a map that can be provided to responders on the ground to help them determine where to direct their resources, as seen in the example below:

Standby Task Force, Disaster Assessment Map for Hurricane Maria, September 2017. (https://standbytaskforce.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=3559fb539314487388802394aa44233b)

The line across the island represents the path of the hurricane. Each dot on the map represents a tagged damage report from social media (including a series of aerial imagery that were uploaded to Facebook) and traditional media sources. 

The Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team is working on a variety of projects at any given time. In addition to providing information to responders, they are continually working to create very detailed maps that include roads, footpaths, and buildings in communities all around the world for which much of that information is not available. When events such as floods or disease outbreaks stike these often isolated communities, having detailed information available about precisely where people are and where buildings and other infrastructure is located help aid workers and responders target their efforts and efficiently allocate resources.

Advanced computing and artifical intelligence

There are many potential applications for artificial intelligence to enhance humanitarian technology. However, it is very important to emphasize the importance of the human component in all of this. AI is not envisioned to be a replacement for human cognition, but rather, a complement to reduce the workload where possible. For example, the AIDR (Artificial Intelligence for Diaster Reponse) platform sifts through vast amount of data generated on Twitter during a disaster to filter out the most pertinent information. A similar platform is used by the Joint Research Center (the European Commission’s science and knowledge service) to help classify aerial imagery.

AI is also being used to advance disaster response and planning capabilities, as seen in the video below by a new organization called OneConcern.

Their innovative program: 

• assesses building data, elevation, soil types, other factors
• predicts damage on block-by-block basis
• identifies buildings in need of reinforcement
• recommends evacuation routes and where to deploy first responders
• has modeling capabilities (e.g. – testing placement of barriers)

One Concern. (2018, June 19). Why One Concern is different: One Concern testimonials [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8MP_4yYt-k&feature=emb_logo

There are some major challenges that come with the use of technology in humanitarian work, though, many of these can be translated to any other sector where technology is disrupting the way things are done. The most fundamental challenges include:

Dealing with the sheer volume of big crisis data

• 20 million tweets and 1 million Instagram photos were posted during Hurricane Sandy, for example
• But, what was the quality of that information? How many tweets were from kids tweeting about being off of school, etc.?
• Importance of developing effective data filters, scrubbing, verification: how many tweets/SMS/email, etc., are relevant, reliable, informative?
• How to find the needle in the haystack in real-time. In the world of social media, information perishes very quickly.
• Need to make the platforms easy to use so anyone can join in – the whole point of crowd computing/micro-tasking is that you don’t need specialized training and experience to help out.

Verification of the data itself

• How do we know what we’re reading is true? Especially in a disaster scenario, verifying the information with the original source is unlikely. Also, ill-intentioned, false reporting happens.
• How do we know what we’re reading is accurate? Well-intentioned reporting, but with incorrect information.
• But keep it in context – 911 and 999 get false calls all the time. But social media is public and transparent so everyone can see when there is false reporting, need to watch for bias against the usefulness of the information.
• Negative space can say as much as active space after a catastrophe strikes – why is little or no information coming from this community or area?

Employing an accurate but rapid verification process

• The systems in place now typically require a specified number of volunteers to come to a consensus (usually either 3 people or 5 people) on a tag/classification/interpretation of data
• Platforms are now in use and being developed that use AI to reduce the load on digital volunteers (more on this further down in this document)

Ethics and privacy

• How best to use public data. If someone tweets their home address and that they need help, is it appropriate to post that person’s address on a public crisis map being accessed and viewed by thousands of people?
• In 2013, the GSMA (Groupe Speciale Mobile Association, based in London; the global association for the mobile telecoms industry) produced guidelines for the use of data in natural disasters. 
• ICRC revised data protection protocols published a few months later, including a new chapter with guidelines for digital humanitarians

Technical infrastructure

• Making sure servers and networks are robust enough to handle large amounts of data and traffic

The rapidly-changing nature of technology

• New platforms emerge and others die off – where to concentrate time and effort on training and best practices?
• Keeping up with new platforms as they become widely and quickly adopted

Make a Comment

Make a comment below this update reflecting on something that stood out to you from this week's material. Do you find any of the issues or technologies mentioned particularly interesting, and why? Do you perhaps have concerns about some of the challenges that were mentioned?

Post an Update

Post an update about a technology being used in the humanitarian sector. Parse a specific example: who was involved, where it was deployed, what was its effectiveness, and provide your views on its long-term potential given the many challenges outlined in this week's material. Try to include at least one media element in your update. Comment on the updates of at least three of your peers.

Some ideas:

ESRI
GISCorps
Missing Maps Project: 
Google PersonFinder 
Planet
Landsat 
UN Centre for Humanitarian Data 

Digital Humanitarian Network
WeRobotics

There are lots of possibilities, so please don't limit yourselves to this list!

Introduction

Communication style is a major element of crisis management. Leaders must be able to accurately convey facts while displaying empathy and a command of the situation. This balance can be difficult to maintain in the face of a crisis when, especially in the immediate hours, there is much confusion and conflicting information coming in from multiple sources or, when the facts simply aren't yet known.

Crises are grueling and exhausting for everyone involved, and successful leaders must be able to manage themselves as well as those around them. Consider the fatal flaw of Tony Hayward, the former CEO of BP:

CNN. Hayward - Life back [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZraCNZZ7U8

This statement was made approximately one month after the incident occurred. Approximately two months later, BP announced that Hayward would be replaced as CEO effective October 1 of that year. The infamous "I'd like my life back" comment was not the only misstep he made. He also downplayed the impact of the spill and the amount of oil flowing into the Gulf. Rightly or wrongly, Hayward's comments and demeanor made him the public villain.

There is not a definitive list of the qualities and characteristics that constitute a good crisis communicator, but here is a list to consider:

• honesty and transparency (It's better to say "I don't know, I'll get back you on that by the next briefing" rather than relay unverified information or "guesstimates"
• empathy
• authenticity
• timely 
• strength/authority (being seen as up to the task)

This video from King's College London provides some additional insight on how to think about communications in a crisis:

kingscollegelondon. (2017, December 5). Communication in a crisis: understanding the public response [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1edkOUa6Q6U

Below are some examples of political and business leaders communicating in a crisis. What do you think? Consider the context of the incident and the intended audience. How does the speaker look and sound? Are they conveying appropriate emotion? Do they seem trustworthy? What role does culture play in a leader's messaging?

President Regan's Address to the Nation after the Challenger Accident, January 1986

C-SPAN. (2016, January 28). President Reagan on Space Shuttle Challenger explosion (C-SPAN) [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66mGwws7EEw

After the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001, President George W. Bush delivered a speech on the ground to first responders. It became known as the "bullhorn speech."

Fox 35 Orlando. George W. Bush’s bullhorn speech still echoes, ‘I can hear you! The rest of the world hears you’ [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zi2SNFnfMjk

Prime Minister Teresa May's response to the terrorist attack in Manchester on May 22, 2017.

10 Downing Street. (2017, May 23). PM's statement following terrorist attack in Manchester [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=penFd68FmSM&feature=youtu.be

President Trump's response to the shooting that occurred in Las Vegas on October 1, 2017.

CNN. (2017, October 2). President Trump responds to Las Vegas shooting [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pY4K4U9TtX8

In April 2018, two African-American men were arrested at a Starbucks in Philadelphia for refusing to leave after the manager asked them to for not ordering anything. (They were waiting to meet a third person.) The incident went viral, and prompted the CEO of Starbucks to shut down all of its locations nationwide for a day of racial-bias training.

CNN. (2018, April 17). Starbucks CEO: I'm going to fix this [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=341&v=wUhQ_TGc0rg&feature=emb_logo

In March 2017, Facebook became embroiled in a scandal over allowing a third party company, Cambridge Analytica, to harvest user data and sell it without the knowledge or consent of the users. It became an iconic incident that brought to light significant concerns and issues around data privacy. Below is a video of Mark Zuckerberg, the CEO of Facebook, testifying before Congress.

NBC News. (2018, April 10). 'I'm sorry': Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg delivers opening statement at Senate hearing | NBC News [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UofMQ8EGmSc

Reading

Crisis Communications: When to Talk to the Media

Make a Comment

Make a comment below this update evaluating the effectiveness of the communications conveyed in the various videos. It's not necessary to discuss all of them, but choose one or two that stood out to you and explain why. How did the speaker look? Sound? What vocabulary words stood out? What was the tone? Did the speaker seem empathetic? Honest? Authentic? What audience was the speaker addressing? What other qualities did you notice?

Post an Update

Make an update parsing an example of crisis communications. Do you think it is a poor example or a good one, and why? Be sure to include a video of the speaker. Comment on the updates of at least three of your peers.

Introduction

What does it take to be a successful leader in a crisis? As we explored last week, one important quality is being an effective communicator. It is also important to be able to lead in all directions as well as manage your own emotions, behaviors, and state of mind. Leading in all directions means leading up -- managing the expectations of your supervisor; leading down -- managing those under your authority; and leading across -- being able to bring together constituencies over which you do not have authority but who are critical to the situation. Taken together, this is known as meta-leadership.

Meta-leadership has five dimensions:

1. Who you are (self-awareness, emotional intelligence, ability to manage stress)
2. The situation
3. Leading up
4. Leading across
5. Leading down

The following videos explain meta-leadership in further detail.

HarvardCPL. (2011, November 23). NPLI: Meta-leadership [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rj2assQiltw

HarvardCPL. (2018, June 29). NPLI: Meta-leadership overview [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6j-UF9Ip7g

HarvardNPLI. (2017, December 19). Eric McNulty on the person of the meta-leader [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oO3h3cd1Wmk&feature=youtu.be

AFCEA International. (2014, August 18). Adm. Thad Allen, USCG (Ret.) - AFCEA leadership 5 questions [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnJZ8KJvhn4

Readings

Leading Through a Major Crisis

Adm. Thad W. Allen: Leadership in a Crisis

Make a Comment

Make a comment below this update discussing your thoughts about meta-leadership. What stood out to you from the videos or readings?

Post an Update

Create an update that parses an example of meta-leadership, or lack therof. Describe the situation and how the person exemplified the qualities of meta-leadership and the impact their actions had on the situation and those around them. This can be an example from your own experience, one that the course has covered, or one that you would like to bring in to the discussion. Comment on the updates of at least three of your peers.